Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Prediction

On Saturday Evening the streets of the Spanish capital will be on lock-down as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will descend on Lisbon to contest this year’s Champions League Final. Real have won 2 and drawn 1 of the 4 matches they have played this season, including an impressive 5-0 aggregate win in the Copa Del Rey but I can see the final being a tighter, cagey affair.

Real Madrid Team News

Xabi Alonso misses the final through suspension and Asier Illarramendi is expected to take his place in midfield. Diego Lopez, Alvaro Morata and Karim Benzema are doubts but there’s a chance all could be available for selection.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Gabi returns from suspension and should take his place alongside Tiago in Midfield. In-form striker Diego Costa meanwhile is being monitored on a day-to-day basis but is expected to miss out with a hamstring strain. Raul Garcia therefore could start alongside David Villa in attack.

Probable Real Madrid Line-Up (4-3-3) – Casillas, Carvajal, Ramos, Pepe, Marcelo, Modric, Illarramendi, Di Maria, Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo

Probable Atletico Madrid Line-Up (4-4-2) – Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Luis, Turan, Tiago, Gabi, Koke, Garcia, Villa

In the Semi-Final Real dominated Bayern over 2 legs, winning 5-0 on aggregate. Being the highest scoring team in the tournament by some way, Real’s goal tally is 37 goals in a meagre 12 games. Ronaldo (16 goals), Benzema and Bale (5 goals each) are a lethal attacking trio, capable of unlocking any defence, especially on the counter-attack. However, it’s likely Real will see a lot more possession on Saturday evening and their chances to play their usual counter-attacking football will be limited.

Losing Xabi Alonso is a huge blow. In attack, Real lose their orchestrator capable of dictating the play with his passing. Defensively, Real loses its shield in front of the back line which could prove costly against Atletico’s counter-attacking style.

Atletico are still unbeaten in the competition as they have conceded just 6 goals in 12 matches. Amazingly, the short period of time they trailed to Chelsea in the semi-final was just the 2nd time they’ve gone behind all competition. Atletico may not have Real’s array of creative geniuses, but they have a voracious midfield that will press and hunt down their opponents to turn defence into a swift counter-attack.

Diego Costa is doubtful for the final and Atletico will miss his production (8 goals in his last 8 Champions League games) but Raul Garcia is more than an able deputy (4 goals) and Arda Turan (4 goals also) can also chip in with some important goals.

Xabi Alonso’s absence should be of great advantage to Atletico, as Real loses a midfielder capable of overriding their incessant pressing with his superb range of passing.

PREDICTION: This promises to be an intriguing final and could be a classic. However, I can see a tighter cagey affair and a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes is my prediction with extra time and maybe even penalties. The draw is a best priced 5/2 with Bet365 and Cristano Ronaldo is 100/30 with the same firm to score the first goal.

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