@AdamHOwl takes us through his betting tips for this weekend’s La Liga action.
Rayo V Almeria
Sunday’s action begins in the Spanish Capital as Rayo host relegation threatened Almeria at Vallecas as Rayo look to bounce back from their Vigo nightmare last weekend and Almeria look to build on last Saturday night’s Andalusian Derby home success over Granada.
Rayo come into this after last Saturday’s 6-1 away defeat in Vigo to Celta in a game where they started well taking the lead in the first minute and coming close to a second but Celta soon equalised and Rayo’s poor defending soon saw them 2-1 down and as their defending remained poor, the goals just kept on flying in for Celta.
But we know how Rayo play and when they don’t defend well you can sometimes get defeats like the one they got in Vigo and even Paco Jemez has accepted that he’s to blame for it, citing his subsitutions as mistakes.
They can still achieve a top ten finish but you feel a win here is a must if order to do that. Their recent home form which has seen them win four of their last six home games will give them the belief that they can win this one. But Rayo have been at home twice this season already in the early Sunday kick-off and they’ve lost both against Elche and Sevilla so they don’t fair too well in them this season.
Whilst their home form has been good recently Rayo have conceded eight defeats from their fifteen home games this season so take their recent home form at face value at your peril. If you look at some of the sides who have won at Vallecas this season, you can list Cordoba, Deportivo, Espanyol, Eibar and Elche, so bear that in mind.
Almeria come into this game after last Saturday night’s huge home success in the Andalusian Derby which saw them beat Granada 3-0 and I thought that they were excellent and they were much much better than they were in their last home game which saw the end of Juan Ignacio Martinez as manager as Levante easily beat them 4-1. To lose like that in a crucial relegation six pointer was unacceptable and he can have no complaints and to be honest he should have been sacked sooner in my opinion.
Against Granada last weekend Almeria looked better in attack and I actually felt like they could score on some of their attacks where as before I couldn’t see a clear cut chance being created let alone a goal being possible. Defensively they look more organised and less open and full credit to Sergi Barjuán because he’s had an effect on this side in a short space of time and last Saturday was their second home success of this season and it’s a huge one.
You can’t totally write Almeria off here in this game because yes, they may have ten defeats from their sixteen away games this season but it’s one of the best out of all the sides in the relegation battle this season and the majority of their points have been picked up on their travels.
Almeria have proven on many occasions this season that they can pick up results on their travels and their five away wins this season have seen them win away at Cordoba, Malaga, Celta, Deportivo and La Real and to win at Anoeta, Balaidos and Rosaleda which are very tough places to go and get a result just proves why they can never be written off on their travels in games like this.
If you’re looking for a bet on this game go for both teams to score because Rayo are good for a goal but they leave space at the back too and Almeria will exploit that by netting at least once here and if you want value then get on Bueno to net for Rayo who is the top scoring Spaniard in La Liga this season.
Almeria could quite easily win here but I see Rayo just edging things in the Spanish Capital but don’t be surprised to see Almeria pick up something here.
Granada V Sevilla
Granada come into this Andalusian Derby after last Saturday night’s 3-0 away defeat to Almeria in another relegation six pointer which was also an Andalusian Derby and their away following were very good last weekend and backed the team in good numbers and in good voice. It’s just a shame the performance on the pitch didn’t match their support because it wasn’t very good at all and they never looked like scoring.
The performance just wasn’t good enough from Granada and the risks they took especially for the first goal was ridiculous because you have to keep it tight in these games and even more so when it’s a Derby game. They never looked like scoring and I’m certain they are going down due to their lack of goals which results in lack of victories/points as well as their defending which has also contributed.
Sevilla will come into this game after Thursday night’s first leg of their Europa League Quarter Final tie with Russian side Zenit with the first leg at home at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan so Granada are playing them at probably the best time. However Sevilla are in excellent form and the Europa League doesn’t seem to be affecting them.
They are unbeaten in their last seven La Liga games with five wins and two draws and remain well in the race for that fourth spot and their 2-2 draw last Saturday night at home against the leaders Barca saw them keep their superb unbeaten home record going and that result will give them a lot of confidence.
Sevilla’s away form this season is shaky with eight wins and seven defeats from their fifteen away games this season and they’ve still yet to draw an away game this season but they’ll give you a chance at the back in their away games and have the worst defence in the top six this season. Six of their last seven away games has seen them concede.
They’ve won their last three away games though and their record against Granada in this Andalusian Derby is excellent because since Granada beat them 2-1 in Seville back in October 2011 in La Liga they’ve won every single meeting bar one.
If you’re looking for a bet on this game go for Sevilla Over 1.5 Goals because they should find the net twice in an Andalusian Derby they’ll win but Granada will make sure they are in a game.
Eibar V Rayo
Eibar come into this game after last Saturday’s 3-0 defeat away in the Spanish Capital against Los Blancos but they played well in the game and held out for just over twenty minutes before falling behind. But all three goals especially the first two were brilliant. There’s nothing you can do about those types of goals, especially Ronaldo’s superb free-kick.
They put Los Blancos under small amounts of pressure at times forcing three consecutive corners and they can be proud of their performance because they gave it everything but getting anything from this game was always going to be tough.
Their last home game saw them beat Malaga 1-0 and they’ll draw confidence from that but their home form isn’t good form and it saw them lose five home games in a row before the aforementioned victory against Malaga. Four home wins all season is far from respectable; they’ve lost eleven of their last twelve La Liga games and you can’t just ignore that because of a win over a Malaga side who are dreadful away from home in 2015 so far.
Celta come into this game after Saturday night’s 6-1 hammering of Rayo at Balaidos and they showed how good they can be when they are on it.
Rayo’s poor defending contributed to the 6-1 drubbing at the weekend but Celta’s finishing and football was brilliant and they can only beat what is in front of them as the old saying goes.
But they don’t like playing Eibar and in all seven meetings against them the best they have achieved is 0-0 draw in September 2008 in the Basque Country in Liga Adelante. Most of the meetings bar one have come in Liga Adelante and Eibar have won every single meeting between the two sides, even their first meeting in La Liga earlier this season at Balaidos which saw Eibar record a 1-0 away success.
If you’re looking for a bet on this game then it’s best to go with Under 2.5 Goals because this will be a game won by a single goal in my opinion and it’ll be won by the home side.